Goldminenaktien entfernen sich wieder von den Tiefständen. Siehe Newmont, von gestern auf heute ca. + 10 %.
Wenn ich mir die Platin, Palladium und Silberpreise anschaue, wird mir mulmig in der Magengegend...
anbei ein kleiner Text von gestern: die letzte Passage mit Greenspan ist sehr aufschlussreich...
Market Report (1/27/00): Today's over-the-counter gold option expiry in London (with the nearest major strike interest at $285) had market participants mindful of the potential for related volitility during London Trade, but many expected gold to remain comfortably in the middle of its $280 - $290 trading range. Technical analyst's charts show gold currently to stand neutrally at 49.5 on the Relative Strength Index. A financial instrument or commodity is said to be oversold at an RSI reading below 30, and overbought at levels above 70. As we go to fetch this over to the server, the 9:30 ET expiration has passed, and gold is trading at $285.80. Dealers said there was some light short covering and fund buying ahead of expiry, and accordingly, the London AM Gold fix was $286.50, up from yesterday's $284.90. Sources in Europe were indicated by Bridge News as saying rumors of potential producer buy-backs were "causing some fear that the market could spike higher," with one source saying with this in the wings " perhaps players won't want to aggressively short the market right now."
Reuters quoted one dealer as saying, "The easiest way of summing up the gold market is still to say that it is directionless and the big players seem to be disinterested." When you couple that with the drop in COMEX open interest for gold futures to the lowest levels seen since December 1995 (142,913 on Tuesday,) it would seem to point toward some follow-through on developments which we had cited last Autumn in regard to the post-Washington Agreement price-shocks. As you will recall, the September 26th announcement that 15 European central banks would curb selling and leasing operations resulted in a sharp short-covering spike in which many hedge funds, traders, and speculators, (as well as producers,) were caught in their postions--suffering "disastrous consequences" according to a report by Salomon Smith Barney. As a consequence of that painful lesson, a number of these have moved to scale back or to eliminate their speculative bullion operations. Perhaps we are seeing an important return to prominence of the spot, rather than the futures market for pricing of the yellow metal.
You will recall in our Friday market report that U.S. November exports of nonmonetary gold rose by $0.6 billion over October levels. We now have Japan's preliminary indications of their gold imports from Bridge News. The Ministry of Finance announced preliminary numbers Wednesday that Japan's customs had cleared 12.8 tonnes of non-monetary gold for the month of December, while the value for 1999 totaled 108.5 tonnes...up 26% over the previous year.
On that note, we'll leave you with this exchange from yesterday's Q&A session as Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan appeared before the Senate Banking Committee, testifying at his confirmation hearing for a fourth term as chairman...
SEN. WAYNE ALLARD (R-COLORADO): "Do you have any concerns about the current trade balance?"
GREENSPAN: "...Since the current account deficit is a broader concept of the trade deficit, the current account deficit must also be equal to the amount of capital flows into the United States. Indeed, if there is an imbalance between the demand for capital and the supply of capital, it's that which causes the dollar's foreign exchange value to change.
In view of the fact that the exchange value of the dollar has been relatively flat for quite a while, it is suggestive that both forces are at play here. That is, the significant increase in imports is being driven by the demand that has been in part created by the so-called wealth effect. But the capital inflow is also indirectly created by the same forces that create the wealth effect, namely the very high rates of return on new capital. Over the very long run, it is probably not credible to presume that we can continue a current account deficit or trade imbalance at the levels we currently have because it obviously means that our net debt or the net claims on the United States by foreigners is accumulating, because indeed the current account deficit is basically the net change in the debt.
And ultimately, the interest service on that very large external debt will create serious problems. So that everyone who looks at this process knows that somewhere -- it could be an extraordinary number of years, possibly, I don't really know, and I don't think anyone else knows -- but it is true that it cannot persist indefinitely. The question is, what are the forces which will eventually bring it down?"
Die Frage des Tages!!!
Good trades. And many greetings to all goldmeisters....