www.aei.org/outlook/economics/...me-unlucky-recession-in-2014/
Finally, the role of monetary policy needs to be gradually returned to maintaining low and stable inflation. Monetary policy cannot persistently enhance growth, lower unemployment, or otherwise alter real economic performance. Attempting to do so has led to disappointment. The rising disenchantment with quantitative easing reflects this reality. The transition to inflation-only targeting for monetary policy needs to be clearly articulated and undertaken gradually. The path may not be smooth as the elevated volatility and growth-reducing uncertainty accompanying the recent, too-abrupt tapering has shown.
Reality Check: These are all familiar proposals. Sadly, the lack of progress in enacting any of them is also very familiar. That is why there exists a high probability, tied to the shape of past expansions, of a recession beginning in early 2014. Let us hope that as the economic data continue to suggest the recession outcome, policymakers will be moved to enact measures that will prolong expansions.