Der USA Bären-Thread

Als Analysten und "Warner" dieses Kursziel für Öl das letzte Mal ausriefen (Sommer 2008), stand der Lehman-Kollaps kurz bevor.

www.marketwatch.com/story/...goes-off-line-200-oil-is-next-2014-06-17

If Iraqi oil goes off line, $200 oil is next

The ISIS rebels have carved out an impressive swath of territory in northern Iraq. This has enormous implications and risks to the world’s oil supplies.

Months before the ISIS rebels began their threatening move into Iraq’s southern regions, the International Energy Agency was imploring OEPC to produce and export an additional 1.2 million barrels per day (mbd) more oil by the end of 2014.

The sad fact is that out of 12 OPEC members, eight of them are collectively in decline. When summed together Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar and Venezuela were producing just over 14.5 million barrels per day in early 2005; but are now producing just 11.25 mbd.

These countries are losing nearly 500 thousand barrels per day of production per year.

Of the other four OPEC members not in decline, only Iraq has managed to add significant production. It increased its output from 1.75 mbd in 2005 to 3.25 mbd currently.

The nearly 2 mbd of incremental Iraqi production were essential to keeping Brent oil within the price range of $100 to $110 per barrel over the past couple of years.

At best, the ISIS rebellion guarantees that any potential additional Iraqi oil output gains are not going to materialize in the near future. No oil companies are going to invest in Iraq until and unless the situation stabilizes.

This means that Saudi Arabia will have to account for 100% of the hoped-for additional oil supply that the IEA is calling for. There’s quite a bit of uncertainty among oil analysts as to whether Saudi Arabia can even do this, as that’s over 1 million barrels per day more than the country has ever pumped in its entire history.

Can the Saudis do this on the back of ageing fields on average 50 to 60 years old? It’s an open and very serious question. They say they can, but all we have is their word on the matter; no data or evidence. If they cannot, then the world will have to confront the harsh reality that Saudi Arabia is no longer the go-to swing producer it once was.

A slightly more dire scenario could see Iraqi oil production decline from current levels due to various insults to its existing oil production systems. Perhaps there will be more voluntary shut-downs of pipelines and refineries, as happened to Iraq’s biggest refiner in Baiji Tuesday morning. A complete loss of Iraqi production would spike the world oil price CLN4 -0.27%  up to $200 per barrel pretty quickly.

Any declines will only add to the pressure on Saudi Arabia. It would not only need to make up for losses in the sliding eight OPEC members’ production, but for any Iraqi losses as well. The loss of a million barrels per day would place a burden on Saudi Arabia that takes it to 100% of its stated production capacity.

The most dire scenario sees a regional conflict break out that pits the Middle East’s Shiites (Iran) against the Sunnis (Saudi Arabia), leading to a compromise of the Strait of Hormuz. Forty percent of the world’s exported oil flows through this waterway.

If conflict causes this flow to become restricted, then $200 per barrel would seem positively cheap. While this risk is small, it is a catastrophic potential outcome that cannot be dismissed. Prudent governments and investors need to begin factoring this in.

JERUSALEM – Members of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, or ISIS, were trained in 2012 by U.S. instructors working at a secret base in Jordan, according to informed Jordanian officials.

The officials said dozens of ISIS members were trained at the time as part of covert aid to the insurgents targeting the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. The officials said the training was not meant to be used for any future campaign in Iraq.

The Jordanian officials said all ISIS members who received U.S. training to fight in Syria were first vetted for any links to extremist groups like al-Qaida.


Read more at mobile.wnd.com/2014/06/...-base-in-jordan/#ZT6OgtJ0krzx5805.99

mobile.wnd.com/2014/06/...ained-isis-at-secret-base-in-jordan/

us.cnn.com/2014/06/17/politics/...all-what-to-watch/index.html

5. Breaking with Obama: As Clinton's book was about to hit stores, both Obama and Clinton aides wanted no daylight between the former rivals. The messaging was that Obama's team of rivals was unrivaled during Clinton's four years at State.

But at the town hall -- as well as in her book -- Clinton distanced herself from Obama, particularly on the approach to the civil war in Syria.

"We pushed very hard," Clinton said about her view that the United States should arm and help rebels that were fighting Syrian government forces. "But as I say in my book, I believe that Harry Truman was right, the buck stops with the president."

Clinton added that she told Obama that the United States "should have" armed rebels "you know, two plus years ago."

Asked if the White House's decision not to get involved in Syria beyond the limited help that has been given to rebels was a failure, Clinton said she thinks it is "too soon to tell."

In the past, though, Clinton has said that the rise of terrorist groups in Syria has allowed for the rise of Islamists in Iraq.

While Clinton distanced herself from Obama on Syria, she also pulled herself closer and defended Obama on another issue....

Der Reuters Artikel unten bestätigt, dass Amis in Syrien Terroristen trainiert haben, u. a. in der Panzerabwehr, und beruft sich auf Informationen des "Spiegel" und des britischen "Guardian".

www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/10/...ebels-usa-idUSBRE9290FI20130310

(Reuters) - Americans are training Syrian anti-government fighters in Jordan, the German weekly Der Spiegel said on Sunday, quoting what it said were participants and organizers.

Spiegel said it was not clear whether the Americans worked for private firms or were from the army but said some wore uniforms. The training focused on use of anti-tank weaponry.

Some 200 men have already received such training over the past three months and there are plans in the future to provide training for a total 1,200 members of the "Free Syrian Army" in two camps in the south and the east of the country.

Britain's Guardian newspaper also reported that U.S. trainers were assisting Syrian rebels in Jordan. British and French instructors were also participating in the U.S.-led effort, the Guardian said on Saturday, citing Jordanian security sources.

sich vom QV ultimate verabschiedet hat und der Thread wohl demnächst komplett vor dem Aus steht (da keine Verwaltung mehr), werdet ihr mich hier wieder öfter zu lesen bekommen ;-)
Sag mal "servus" in die Runde hehe...

Halte nur noch Ausschau nach nem Trööt wo ich meine Charts auch mal loswerden kann.

www.infowars.com/...ck-u-s-trained-isis-at-secret-jordan-base/
image public domain

hat das Zeug zum Sommerlochfüller bevor wieder in deutschen Seen ein Alligator auftaucht ;)

german.ruvr.ru/news/2014_06_18/...-war-angeblich-umsonst-2145/

wahrscheinlich hat sich ne US Rakete verirrt und das muss natürlich auch vertuscht werden...

landdestroyer.blogspot.de/2014/06/...-re-invasion-of-iraq.html

.....The United States was sure to prop up two unfounded narratives - the first being that US intelligence agencies, despite assets in Iraq and above it in the form of surveillance drones, failed to give warning of the invasion, and that ISIS is some sort of self-sustaining terror organization carving out a "state" by "robbing banks" and collecting "donations" on Twitter.
Despite drone flights collecting intelligence, and a 3-year ongoing CIA program (here, here, and here)  www.washingtonpost.com/world/...3-a628-7e6dde8f889d_story.html  
www.nytimes.com/2013/03/25/world/...expands-with-cia-aid.html?
all along the Turkish-Syrian border to "monitor" and "arm" "moderate" militants fighting the Syrian government, the US claims it was caught "by surprise." If drones and CIA operatives operating in ISIS territory weren't enough to detect the impending invasion, perhaps the CIA should have just picked up a newspaper.

The question remains, if a Lebanese newspaper knew ISIS was on the move eastward, why didn't the CIA? The obvious answer is the CIA did know,.....

Described extensively in the full New Eastern Outlook Journal (NEO) report, "NATO’s Terror Hordes in Iraq a Pretext for Syria Invasion," the United States, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, have funded and armed terrorists operating in Syria for the past 3 years to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars - coincidentally the same amount that ISIS would require to gain primacy among militant groups fighting in Syria and to mobilize forces capable of crossing into Iraq and overwhelming Baghdad's national defenses

journal-neo.org/2014/06/13/...aq-a-pretext-for-syria-invasion/
....ISIS has been harbored, trained, armed, and extensively funded by a coalition of NATO and Persian Gulf states within Turkey’s (NATO territory) borders and has launched invasions into northern Syria with, at times, both Turkish artillery and air cover.

In March, ISIS withdrew its terror battalions from Latikia and Idlib provinces and repositioned them in the east of Syria, now clearly in preparations for invading northern Iraq. The Daily Star reported in a March 2014 article titled, “Al-Qaeda splinter group in Syria leaves two provinces: activists,”www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/...hx#axzz34Pm6wbRZ

und hier der Artikel vom Pulitzerpreis Seymour M.Hearsh im New Yorker 2007 zur geänderten Poltik der USA im Mittleren Osten:(4 Jahre vor dem Arab Spring)
www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/03/05/...ersh?currentPage=all

   To undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, the Bush Administration has decided, in effect, to reconfigure its priorities in the Middle East. In Lebanon, the Administration has coöperated with Saudi Arabia’s government, which is Sunni, in clandestine operations that are intended to weaken Hezbollah, the Shiite organization that is backed by Iran. The U.S. has also taken part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A by-product of these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda.

Throughout the Syrian conflict, which began in 2011, the West and its regional partners have sent billions in cash, weapons, and equipment. In the March 2013 Telegraph article titled, “US and Europe in ‘major airlift of arms to Syrian rebels through Zagreb’,” it is reported:

   It claimed 3,000 tons of weapons dating back to the former Yugoslavia have been sent in 75 planeloads from Zagreb airport to the rebels, largely via Jordan since November...
   The shipments were allegedly paid for by Saudi Arabia at the bidding of the United States, with assistance on supplying the weapons organised through Turkey and Jordan, Syria’s neighbours. But the report added that as well as from Croatia, weapons came “from several other European countries including Britain”, without specifying if they were British-supplied or British-procured arms.

  British military advisers however are known to be operating in countries bordering Syria alongside French and Americans, offering training to rebel leaders and former Syrian army officers. The Americans are also believed to be providing training on securing chemical weapons sites inside Syria.

The weapons, including rocket launchers, recoil-less guns and the M79 anti-tank weapon, have been seen in rebel hands in numerous videos, and were first spotted by an arms expert Eliot Higgins, who blogs under the name Brown Moses. He traced them moving from Dera'a in the south, near the Jordanian border, to Aleppo and Idlib provinces in the north.

Western officials told the New York Times that the weapons had been bought from Croatia by Saudi Arabia, and that they had been funnelled to rebel groups seen by the west as more secular and nationalist. .....
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/...bels-through-Zagreb.html

www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/...tschland-nimmt-zu-a-975908.html

Verfassungsschutzbericht: Fremdenfeindliche Gewalt in Deutschland nimmt rasant zu

Berlin - Extremisten in Deutschland verfolgen ihre Ziele immer häufiger mit Gewalt: In seinem Jahresbericht 2013 verzeichnet das Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz starke Zuwächse bei Gewalttaten....

Die Zahl der Gewalttaten gegen Fremde stieg demnach im Jahresvergleich um 20,4 Prozent... Rechtsextremisten versuchen dem Verfassungsschutzbericht zufolge gezielt, Vorbehalte gegen Asylbewerber auszunutzen und Proteste gegen Asylbewerberheime zu radikalisieren. "Es besorgt mich sehr, dass die rechte Szene unablässig versucht, die Stimmung gegenüber Fremden zu vergiften, indem sie Ängste und Vorurteile gegen Asylsuchende schürt", so de Maizière....

www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/...affinerie-in-baidschi-a-975868.html

Die Isis-Dschihadisten haben einen der wichtigsten Industriestandorte im Irak unter Beschuss genommen: die Ölraffinerie in Baidschi. Die Mitarbeiter sind auf der Flucht, die Angreifer dringen in den Komplex ein.

Bagdad - Die Dschihadisten im Irak haben die größte Raffinerie des Landes angegriffen. Die Kämpfer der Terrorgruppe "Islamischer Staat im Irak und in Syrien" (Isis) seien in den Raffineriekomplex von Baidschi in der Provinz Salaheddin nördlich von Bagdad eingedrungen, sagte ein Behördenvertreter.

"Sie kontrollieren inzwischen die Produktionsstätten, das Verwaltungsgebäude und vier Wachtürme. Das sind drei Viertel des Geländes", sagte ein Augenzeuge. Derzeit lieferten sich die Angreifer mit Sicherheitskräften noch Gefechte um einen Kontrollraum. Zuvor sollen sie Mörsergranaten und Maschinengewehrfeuer eingesetzt haben. ....

-------------------

US-Öl (WTI) seit Januar:

(man ist ja schon dankbar, wenn überhaupt was wächst ;-))

First-quarter U.S. current account deficit climbs to $111.2 billion
By Jeffry Bartash

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. current account deficit widened to $111.2 billion in the first quarter, or 2.6% of gross domestic product, from $87.3 billion, or 2%, in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. The bigger deficit was accounted for by an increase in the deficit on goods and a smaller income surplus. The current-account deficit peaked at 6.5% of GDP at the end of 2005 and has tilted sharply lower since the end of the Great Recession.

german.ruvr.ru/news/2014_06_18/...in-Ukraine-vorbereitet-6211/

die Notenbanken fluten den Markt mit Geld, das war früher so und ist auch richtig

Heute kaufen die Notenbanken selbst massiv Aktien, das ist der Unterschied zu früher. Und die haben keinen Druck etwas zu verkaufen, natürlich nur wenn jemand viel mehr Geld bietet gegenüber dem Einkaufspreis.

1. Das Haushalts-Defizit wuchs um 2,6 % (987).

2. Das BIP schrumpfte um -1 %.

Das ist nicht der Stoff, aus dem nachhaltige Aktien-Rallyes gestrickt sind.

3. US-Kerninflation steigt auf 2 %. (PCE-Kernrate auf 1,4 %) - siehe # 974

4. Zinsen bleiben bei Null

US-Sparer bekommen keine Zinsen und mussten 2013 mit ansehen, wie ihr Geld auf den Konten im Jahr 2013 um real -2 % entwertete. Von einer solchen "finanziellen Repression" sollte eigentlich die (Finanz-)Wirtschaft profitieren. Dennoch sank das US-BIP im 1. Quartal 2014 um -1 % (und dahinter steckt höchstwahrscheinlich mehr als nur der "harte Winter"). Gleichzeitig stieg das US-Haushalts-Defizit nach heutigen Zahlen um 2,6 %.

Insgesamt betrachtet scheint in USA gehörig was faul zu sein. Dass QE ausläuft und wegen 2,0 % Kerninflation eh nicht ernsthaft fortgesetzt werden kann - evtl. sind sogar baldige Leitzins-Erhöhungen fällig -, könnte dem Fass den Boden rausnauen.

Die Fed dürfte heute abend die nächste 10-Mio./Monat-Kürzung bei QE vornehmen. Die hohe Kerninflation lässt ihr keine andere Wahl.

[Artikel drucken]
[Geld drucken]
[Draghi drücken]

Längerer Artikel im Handelsblatt über die "Sünden" der Eurozonenmitglieder und die haltlose Gelddruckwirtschaft.

www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/...ste-krise/10063110.html

Handelsblatt
Euro-Länder weichen Stabilitätspakt auf

Sehenden Auges in die nächste Krise

exklusiv - Europa steht vor einer gefährlichen Kehrtwende: Nicht nur, dass einige EU-Länder auf Reformempfehlungen aus Brüssel pfeifen – jetzt wollen sie auch den Stabilitätspakt lockern. Ökonomen warnen vor einer neuen Euro-Krise.

Berlin - Was Vereinbarungen in der EU wert sind, kann man derzeit wunderbar anhand der Gedankenspiele einiger Schulden-Staaten sehen. Nicht nur, dass die Länder den jährlichen Reformempfehlungen der EU-Kommission kaum folgen, wie aus einer Auswertung des Europaparlaments hervorgeht. Demnach haben die Staaten in den vergangenen zwölf Monaten weniger als zehn Prozent der Reformen verwirklicht, die ihnen die Kommission vor einem Jahr nahegelegt hatte.

Nun dringt auch noch eine Staatengruppe unter Führung von Frankreich und Italien offenbar vehement auf eine Abkehr von der bisherigen, allein auf die Haushaltssanierung zielenden Stabilitätspolitik in Europa. Die Regierungen in Paris und Rom wollen laut „Süddeutscher Zeitung“ erreichen, dass kreditfinanzierte staatliche Investitionen in Wachstum und Beschäftigung nicht mehr auf das Budgetdefizit angerechnet werden. Krisenländer erhielten so mehr Zeit, ihre Finanzen in Ordnung zu bringen. Im Gegenzug sollen sich die betroffenen Regierungen dazu verpflichten, wichtige Strukturreformen anzupacken.

Ökonomen reagieren mit Entsetzen – und sehen bereits die Euro-Krise von Neuem ausbrechen.....

-----------------------

Davon ungerührt hat das bankrotte Zypern heute frische Staatsanleihen mit nur 4,85 % Coupon rausgegeben. Die (fast bankrotten) Griechen mussten vor 2 Mon. noch 4,95 % bieten.

www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-18/...t-kenya-sells-5y-bonds-485-yield

"Simple Jack" is back. Yesterday it was the 4x oversubscription for Kenyan debt at 7% yield; today we see bailed-out Cyprus (yes that Cyprus - in "emergency situation" and still with capital controls) managed to sell EUR 750 million of 5 year maturity debt at a 4.85% yield. As Reuters reports, this is the fastest comeback to the public markets of any bailed-out European country. "People are searching for yield," said of Martin Wilhelm, founder of IfK, a German Kiel-based bond boutique, which runs a bond fund with Acatis; and that is clear as Cyprus just issed at a cheaper cost of funding than Greece (4.95% 2 months ago). In the understatement of the day, Michael Leister, senior strategist at Commerzbank.  said "the risk is that valuations and primary market dynamics aren't related to fundamentals anymore." Cyprus economy is expected to contract 4.2% this year. Like Greece's deal in April, the buyers are expected to largely British- and U.S.-based hedge funds....

Aus dem Wirtschafts-Blog des schweizer Tagesanzeigers.

blog.tagesanzeiger.ch/nevermindthemarkets/...-der-finanzkrise/

Die bleibenden Schäden der Finanzkrise
Markus Diem Meier am Mittwoch, den 18. Juni 2014

Die Höhepunkte der Finanzkrise sind seit bald sechs Jahren vorbei. Die Langzeitschäden werden immer deutlicher und sie sagen viel über die politischen Fehler der Vergangenheit aus.

Wenn die Ökonomen von«Hysterese» sprechen, dann meinen sie den anhaltenden schädlichen Effekt einer lang anhaltenden Krise auf die Leistung einer Volkswirtschaft. Ursprünglich bezieht sich der Begriff auf die Wirkungen der Arbeitslosigkeit:

Steigt diese als Folge eines Konjunktureinbruchs, das heisst einer zu geringen Gesamtnachfrage, dann kann sie in gewöhnlichen Zeiten durch eine angemessene Konjunkturpolitik relativ rasch behoben werden – etwa durch eine expansiven Geldpolitik wie das Sinken der Leitzinsen. Ist die Geldpolitik in ungewöhnlichen Zeiten wie seit der Finanzkrise dazu allerdings nur schlecht in der Lage - unter anderem weil die Leitzinsen schon auf ihren Tiefstwert gesunken sind, dann bleibt nur noch die Fiskalpolitik - also die Ausgaben des Staates.

Fehlt eine solche antizyklische Konjunkturpolitik und hält die Konjunkturkrise über längere Zeit an, dann wandelt sich zumindest ein Teil der konjunkturellen (das heisst nachfragebedingten) Arbeitslosigkeit in eine strukturelle: Anfänglich fehlt es den Arbeitslosen nicht an der nötigen Qualifikation, um sie bei steigender Nachfrage wieder beschäftigen zu können. Doch je länger sie dem Arbeitsmarkt unfreiwillig fernbleiben, desto stärker entwertet sich ihr Wissen, desto weniger produktiv werden sie und desto schwieriger wird es für sie deshalb auch, überhaupt wieder einen Job zu finden. Umso stärker sind sie wahrscheinlich in der Folge auch psychologisch beeinträchtigt, angesichts des Leidens, das eine lang anhaltende Arbeitslosigkeit gewöhnlich mit sich bringt....

insgesamt eher "hawish" (= bärisch)

June 18, 2014, 2:01 p.m. EDT
Fed sees interest rates bit higher in 2015-2016, cuts bond buys
By Jeffry Bartash

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Federal Reserve officials expect to raise short-term interest rates a bit faster in 2015 and 2016 than previously forecast and the central bank voted on Wednesday to reduce its bond-buying stimulus program again by $10 billion to $35 billion a month. The Fed now sees the key fed funds rate closer to 1.25% at the end of 2015, up from a prior forecast of 1%, according to a "dot plot." The Fed also expects the rate to move up to around 2.5% by the end of 2016 instead of 2.25% as previously projected. The reason for the change: the central bank still thinks the economy will expand rapidly in the next two years. The economy is seen growing at a 3% to 3.2% range in 2015 and 2.5% to 3% in 2006, unchanged from the bank's prior forecast. While the Fed slashed its growth projection for this year to a 2.1% to 2.3% range - down from 2.8% to 3% - officials clearly believe a harsh winter is to blame and they don't think the contraction in GDP in the first quarter will have a lasting effect. "Growth in economic activity has rebounded in recent months," the Fed said in a statement. Stronger growth will lower the unemployment rate a little faster to as low as 6% by the end of 2014; as low as 5.4% by 2015; and as low as 5.1% by 2016. The Fed barely altered its already-low forecast for inflation as measured by the PCE index. Meanwhile, the central bank as expected voted to cut its bond-buying to $35 billion a month from $45 billion, starting on July 1. The vote was 10-0.

the assault on the Baiji oil refinery early Wednesday will likely further spook international oil markets.

Militants have taken control of most of Baiji in northern Iraq, an official at the refinery said on Wednesday.

"The militants have managed to break in to the refinery. Now they are in control of the production units, administration building and four watch towers. This is 75 percent of the refinery," an official speaking from inside the refinery said.From about 4:00 am, clashes erupted at the refinery complex in Salaheddin province, north of Baghdad, according to a senior official and a refinery employee.

Some stores of oil products caught fire during the assault on the facility, Iraq's biggest refinery...."The oil infrastructure as well as major production facilities are mostly concentrated in the south with terminals at Basra operating as normal," VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov told AFP.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki sacked several top security commanders on Tuesday evening,.....
english.al-akhbar.com/content/...liki-sack-military-commanders

via ZH

Federal Reserve officials nudged up their projections for short-term interest rates in 2015 and 2016 but slightly reduced their outlook for interest rates in the longer-run.

The shifts emerged from the Fed's latest two-day policy meeting. In a statement released after the meeting, the Fed underlined an improving economic performance in the last few weeks and said it would wind down the monthly pace of mortgage and Treasury bond purchases by another $10 billion starting in July, to $35 billion.

Economic activity rebounded since officials last met in April, the Fed said in its official policy statement.

"Labor market indicators generally showed further improvement," the Fed said on an optimistic note. "The unemployment rate, though lower, remains elevated." Officials also pointed to a recent resumption of business investment after a slowdown earlier this year as one source of an improved economic environment.

That tint of optimism follows a dismal first quarter in which the economy contracted, forcing officials to reduce their projection for economic growth this year. Officials now see the economy expanding at a 2.2% rate in 2014, substantially slower than a projected growth rate of near 3% offered last March. Still, the Fed maintained its optimism about a pickup in 2015 and 2016.

Its interest rate forecasts are likely to draw substantial attention among investors.

On average, Fed officials projected the benchmark federal funds rate would hit 1.2% by the end of 2015 and 2.5% by the end of 2016, up from averages of 1.125% in 2015 and 2.4% in 2016 when the Fed last projected rates in March. Over the longer run, officials on average said the target interest rate could settle in at a lower-than-normal 3.75%, down from earlier forecasts of 4%.

Taken together, the Fed's new interest rate forecasts imply slightly more aggressive credit tightening plans[daher mein "hawkish" oben, A.L.] taking shape in the next two years than previously thought, but less aggressive beyond 2016. Still, the shift in forecasts can be skewed by changes in the composition of the Fed's policy making committee since the last forecast round in March. Two officials have left and three new officials have joined.

The Fed's new interest rate forecasts arise against a shifting economic backdrop.[A.L.: D.h. die Fed kann hier auch völlig falsch liegen, bei Wirtschaftsschwäche fallen langlaufende Zinsen] Officials in their projections for the years ahead see the jobless rate falling more than previously thought.

They see the jobless rate receding to 6% or 6.1% by year end and then to the mid-5% range in 2015 and low-5% range in 2016. Those represented downward revisions from March and suggest the Fed sees less slack in the economy than previously thought, which could help explain the slightly higher near-run interest rate projections.

At the same time, however, the Fed is a little less optimistic about the outlook for economic growth. Officials said the economy's growth potential might be as low as 2.1% in the long-run, the latest in a string of downward revisions made in recent years. That gloomier long-run growth outlook could help explain why the central bank is producing a lower long-run interest rate forecast of 3.75%.

No officials dissented at the meeting. It was the third straight policy meeting this year for Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen in which there was no dissent.

english.al-akhbar.com/content/...road-and-struggles-succession

...An anonymous Twitter user spoke of video and audio recordings of two former senior officials – former prime minister Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammed al-Sabah and former Speaker of Parliament Jassim al-Kharafi – allegedly discussing a plot to overthrow the Gulf state's ruling system, as well as mentioning billions of dollars deposited in various places abroad, including an Israeli bank, as well as large amounts of funds sent to Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement and Iran.

An investigation was launched by the public prosecutor. A news blackout on the case was immediately imposed...Sheikh Jaber Mubarak al-Sabah, Kuwait's prime minister, “showed reports by specialized foreign sides affirming without doubt that the audio recordings and the videotapes which they examined had been tampered with and do not represent genuine and reliable copies....
On June 10, a mass rally was held at Determination Square near the National Assembly building in Kuwait City. Around 6,000 Kuwaitis answered the call by opposition figures composed of former, mainly conservative-oriented MPs l.....Barrak showed what he said were copies of their accounts and huge transfers through a large screen behind him.Some of the documents held by Barrak have already surfaced on various Kuwaiti websites, and circled among social media,,,The documents, whose authenticity are difficult to verify by Al-Akhbar, are potentially explosive. They show British bank account statements of Sheikh Nasser al-Mohammed, in which millions of pounds were transferred to the accounts of high-ranking judiciary figures in Kuwait between March to May 2013.

However, financial dealings in Israel or with Hezbollah and Iran have not been revealed in the documents so far.

www.wsj.de/article/SB10001424052702303580504579632514062700786.html

Die US-Zentralbank drosselt ihre milliardenschweren Geldspritzen für die Wirtschaft weiter. Die Währungshüter unter dem Vorsitz von Fed-Chefin Janet Yellen beschlossen, die Käufe von Staats- und Hypothekentitel um weitere 10 Milliarden auf 35 Milliarden US-Dollar pro Monat zurückzufahren. Zugleich blieb der Leitzins bei praktisch null. Anleger und Analysten hatten diese Entscheidungen im Vorfeld erwartet. Der Beschluss fiel ohne Gegenstimme.

Die Drosselung des Kaufprogramms betrifft je hälftig Staats- und Hypothekentitel. In den USA ist die Inflation zuletzt spürbar gestiegen, was die US-Notenbank vor ein Dilemma stellt. Denn eine Straffung der Geldpolitik würde zwar die Inflation bremsen, könnte aber auch die Finanzstabilität gefährden.

In den vergangenen Jahren haben Investoren riesige Geldsummen in Staats- und Unternehmensanleihen gesteckt. Bei einem zu raschen Zinsanstieg steht zu befürchten, dass viele Anleger aus dem Anleihenmarkt abrupt aussteigen. Das würde zu heftigen Turbulenzen an den Finanzmärkten führen und die Konjunktur massiv schädigen.

Neben der höheren Inflation haben auch gute Nachrichten vom US-Arbeitsmarkt die Spekulationen auf eine frühe Zinswende in den USA befeuert....

Die prekäre Wende in der Geldpolitik verfolgen Anleger in aller Welt mit Argusaugen, denn sollte sie misslingen, könnte es zu einem Crash an den Börsen kommen. Deshalb werden alle Aussagen der Währungshüter zum Zeitpunkt der ersten Zinserhöhung und zum weiteren zinspolitischen Pfad in die Zukunft genauestens unter die Lupe genommen.

Anhand der jüngsten Zinsprojektionen der Währungshüter zeichnet sich ab, dass die Nullzinspolitik erst im Jahr 2015 zu Ende gehen wird. Bis Ende 2015 sehen die meisten Ratsmitglieder dann die Zinsen mit kurzer Laufzeit bei 2 Prozent oder niedriger....

Die Verluste des Euro gegenüber dem US-Dollar seit Ankündigung der EZB-Maßnahmen gehen nach Analystenmeinung weiter.

18. Juni 2014. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Der Euro hat seit Ankündigung weiterer Lockerungsmaßnahmen durch die EZB gegenüber dem US-Dollar aber auch im Verhältnis zu anderen Währungen wunschgemäß an Kraft verloren. Analysten rechnen damit, dass sich der Euro in den kommenden Monaten weiter verbilligt. "Der Kurs dürfte in diesem Jahr noch Richtung 1,30 fallen", meint etwa Christian Apelt von der Helaba. Derzeit notiert die Gemeinschaftswährung um 1,35 US-Dollar.

Des Guten zuviel?

Für Sintje Boie haben die europäischen Währungshüter mit ihren jüngsten Entscheidungen über das Ziel hinaus geschossen. Denn auf die wenig dynamische Nachfrage im Euroraum habe die Notenbank keinen Einfluss. "Die Konjunktur wird sich weiterhin nur schrittweise erholen, weshalb die Inflationsrate erst einmal niedrig bleibt", prognostiziert die Analystin der HSH Nordbank. "Es ist zudem fraglich, ob mit dem überraschend umfangreichen Paket die gewünschte Kreditvergabe angekurbelt werden kann." Schwache Unternehmen würden vermutlich auch in Zukunft keine Kredite bekommen. Denn die meisten Banken arbeiteten immer noch am Abbau der Risiken und würden ungern zusätzliche Unwägbarkeiten in ihre Bilanzen aufnehmen.

Weiter hier:
http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/de/nachrichten/...bt+unter+druck+69497