Der USA Bären-Thread

Geithner verteidigte weiters die Anstrengungen der Regierung zur Unterstützung von finanzschwachen Hausbesitzern in Form von Subventionen bei Hypothekenmodifikationen. Auf die Frage warum bislang so wenig Hausbesitzer eine nachhaltige Überarbeitung ihrer Kredite erhalten haben erklärte der Finanzminister, dass sich die Regierung ihren Versprechungen absolut verpflichtet fühlt. Die zur Teilhabe an dem Programm berechtigten Amerikaner würden permanente Modifikationen erhalten, weshalb sich deren monatliche Hypothekenzahlungen wesentlich verringern. Der durchschnittliche Haushalt erspare sich dadurch jedes Monat hunderte von Dollars. Im übrigen sorge er sich nicht darüber, dass die amerikanischen Banken wegen strafferer Behördenregulierungen im internationalen Vergleich vor einem Nachteil stehen. “Ich bin darüber zuversichtlich, dass die weltweiten Standards zum Finanzsektor bald angehoben werden und wir uns danach mit gleichen Wettbewerbsbedingungen konfrontiert sehen”, führte Geithner weiter aus.

Greenspan: US-Konjunkturwachstum vor Abschwung/Aktienrückgänge eine Gefahr
New York (BoerseGo.de) - Der frühere Chef der US-Notenbank Alan Greenspan sieht die Erholung der US-Wirtschaft vor einer Verlangsamung und auf schwere Zeiten zusteuern. Er  wäre zudem in Sorge, falls der Aktienmarkt seinen jüngsten Abschwung zur Fortsetzung bringt. Der Rückgang der Kurse stelle ein mehr als warnendes Zeichen dar. Es müsse erinnert werden, dass es sich bei Marktwerten und der Werthaltigkeit von Aktien nicht gerade um Papiergewinne handelt. Stattdessen hätten diese Faktoren tiefgreifende Einflüsse auf die wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten. Die Arbeitslosigkeit dürfte in diesem Jahr bei rund 9-10 Prozent verbleiben. Es sei schwer vorherzusagen, ob der Fall eintritt, dass die Arbeitslosigkeit vor einer baldigen Verringerung steht. Der Kongress könne durch die Verabschiedung von Steuersenkungen für Kleinunternehmen die bislang nützlichste Maßnahme zur Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen setzen. Dabei handle es sich um einen großen impulsgebenden Faktor. Unternehmen würden aber so lange nicht neue Leute einstellen, bis deren Geschäft nicht entsprechende Aufträge erhält. Das Wirtschaftswachstum im vierten Quartal habe eine Unterstützung durch den Lagerbestandsaufbau erhalten. Dadurch gebe es einen Anhaltspunkt, dass die US-Wirtschaft Ende 2009 die Munition verschossen hat. Dies bedeute, dass das Wirtschaftswachstum ab nun voraussichtlich an Schwung verliert. im Bereich des Immobilienmarkts hätten die Hauspreise die Talsohle erreicht. Wegen des riesigen Haushaltsdefizits der Regierung von mehr als einer Billion Dollar bedürfe es Steueranhebungen. Im übrigen bedrohe das Defizit das Ansehen der Finanzmärkte des Landes. “Ich habe keine Zweifel darüber, dass dem riesigen Haushaltsdefizit mit Steuersenkungen begegnet werden muss, aber wir können nicht zur Gänze auf die Steuerseite greifen, zumal dadurch das Wirtschaftswachstum wesentlich in Mitleidenschaft gerät. Das Steueraufkommen und die Einnahmen würden dann geringer als erwartet ausfallen”, führte Greenspan gemäß Bloomberg gegenüber NBC weiter aus.

über den Horizont von einer Woche hinausgeschaut:

Nächste Woche Montag tagt der Rat der Eurogroup, am Dienstag der Ecofin-Rat, der die harschen Maßnahmen gegen Griechenland ratifizieren muß. Das positive daran ist, daß Irland u. Polen diese Maßnahemn ausnahmsweise nicht in einem Volksentscheid ratifizieren lassen müssen. Allerdings hat Griechenland ein Vetorecht. Das wird also wirklich spannend.

Sollte der Entscheid positiv ausfallen (Griechenland macht keinen Gebrauch von seinem Vetorecht), könnte das in den daraufliegenden Wochen ein starke Rallye auslösen. Durch den wiedererstarkenden Euro haben amerikanische Investoren Aussicht auf doppelte Rendite an den europäischen Aktienmärkten.

Wie der Euro sich Anfang nächster Woche verhält, dürfte also richtungsweisend sein.

seekingalpha.com/article/...t-outlook-downside-risks-dominate?
....
when I learned that the economy had shed an additional 20,000 jobs during January, yet the unemployment rate had declined to 9.7%, I reached for the remote.Unfortunately, CNBC's usually reliable trend analysts fell short this time. After listening to the various pundits offer fuzzy explanations, I came to my own conclusion-no one has a clear view of the future. We know that the recession has eliminated over 8 million jobs and the economy remains weak. However, some view those lost jobs as permanent, while others believe robust growth in the first half of 2010 will drive job growth. Some believe government intervention in the markets will lead to a successful handoff to the private sector, and others think the constant meddling has only delayed the inevitable. As I sat in front of the television, parties with vested points of views made their arguments and reached little consensus.

I have always been intellectually closer to those who feel wealth cannot be created by printing more money and that the strong growth in asset prices was a reflection of excess liquidity instead of a forecast of future growth. For now, the stock market is confirming that view.

Relatively good news on the economy and earnings fronts has been overwhelmed by fear. Furthermore, a market that remains oversold cannot rally......On Friday the market was unable to reverse course, and we now find the Dow flirting with 10,000. Although 10,000 offers little technical significance, it holds great psychological weight. With the economy uneven and recovery weak, a dramatic drop that leaves 10,000 behind will devastate investor morale and set up additional downside.

..........
seekingalpha.com/article/...ges-show-bulls-are-losing-control?
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When I look at these charts, they tell me that the market is undergoing a phase change. Bulls are no longer in control, but the bears haven't yet taken command. This conclusion is supported by the behavior of Consumer Staples, a defensive sector that hasn't exactly been powering ahead on a relative basis.The stock market appears to be, at best, undergoing a consolidating phase or basing pattern. Should it weaken further, it would indicate a major leg down in stock prices. ...the S&P 500 is 3 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average - a highly oversold condition. My inner trader tells me to wait for the oversold condition to clear up and watch the market reaction for signs of future direction.

www.businessinsider.com/...e-than-what-the-bls-reported-2010-2
TrimTabs employment analysis, which uses real-time daily income tax deposits from all U.S. taxpayers to compute employment growth, estimated that the U.S. economy shed 104,000 jobs in January.  Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the U.S. economy lost 20,000 jobs.  We believe the BLS has underestimated January’s results due to problems inherent in their survey techniques.

In addition to their regular report, the BLS published benchmark revisions to their employment estimates derived from an actual payroll count for March 2009.  As a result, job losses from April 2008 through March 2009 were revised up a whopping 930,000, or 23% from their earlier revisions.  In addition, the BLS revised their job loss estimates for 2009 up 617,000, or 14.8%.

While the BLS originally reported job losses of 4.2 million in 2009, TrimTabs reported 5.3 million, a difference of more than a million lost jobs.  We consistently reported that based on real-time tax data, job losses were much higher than the BLS was reporting.  This past January, the BLS revised their job loss estimate to 4.8 million, an increase of almost 600,000 lost jobs.  The new total brought the BLS’ revised estimates much closer to TrimTabs’ original estimate based on real-time tax data.

Since July 2009, TrimTabs estimates and the BLS estimates have diverged again.  While the tax data points to a weak job market, the BLS estimates point to a steadily improving job market.  We believe the job market is much worse than the BLS is reporting and that in January 2011, when the BLS revises their estimates for 2010, their April 2009 through December 2009 results will move much closer to TrimTabs’ results.

The BLS has seriously underreported job losses for the past two years due to their flawed methodology.  TrimTabs has identified the following four problems:.........

Too Early to Celebrate

By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
2/5/2010 3:59 PM EST


When the market is down as intensely as this one has been over the last day and half, you have to expect some sort of oversold pop. In this case, we also have the tendency for very strong Monday mornings to consider. The two combined could trigger a classic-looking snapback.
 
I'm playing a few longs. I took a few gold miners. My favorite in that group is Iamgold (IAG). Also, I have some Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) for a flip and a few other things.

As I said earlier, I'll be looking to remount shorts probably later on Monday. I do not think that the downtrend is over. The sharp pop that we are currently seeing is exactly the sort of relief rally you except within a downtrend. Give it a little more room, especially in view of the positive bias on Mondays, but don't start celebrating the resumption of the uptrend.

Source: TrimTabs Investment Research – www.trimtabs.com and Bureau of Labor Statistics – www.bls.com

www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/...lance/2/4/2010/id/26692

www.nytimes.com/2010/02/08/business/global/....html?ref=global
.....With no strong political arm to ensure that members observe debt limits set by treaty, the responsibility falls to Mr. Trichet to try to resolve the crisis.....

.... in a gesture that did little initially to calm nervous investors, Mr. Trichet pointed out that the overall deficit level among euro countries, at about 6 percent of gross domestic product, was still well below that of the United States and Japan, which are each set to borrow more than 10 percent of their G.D.P.’s this year.

Mr. Trichet delivers such comments in excellent English with a distinct French accent. Though he can be stern, he sometimes displays a dry sense of humor. Before the G-7 meeting on Saturday, he joked that by gathering in frozen Canadian territory, “we will have just the right environment to be as cool as possible in judging the situation.”

Mr. Trichet sometimes maintains that problems with individual euro nations should be of no greater concern to Europe’s central bank than the fiscal problems of an individual state are to the Federal Reserve in Washington. After being peppered with questions about Greece on Thursday, Mr. Trichet responded: “I doubt that, in a press conference, Ben Bernanke would have a question on Alaska or Massachusetts.”

...The lack of a strong central government to back up the euro is the most obvious difference. Since last month, the European Council, the body that represents the 27 national governments in the European Union, has had a president for the first time, Herman Van Rompuy. But he has few powers to discipline the 16 euro members.

“The ultimate problem is the nonexistence of a political union,”...
The other big difference is that the central bank, unlike the Fed, is prevented from buying government bonds or offering direct support to troubled banks within its sphere. During the recent financial crisis, however, the bank showed it was able to find creative ways of bolstering the European banking system. It vastly expanded the volume of lending to banks, thus helping to avoid a more serious credit crisis.

In the current situation, the bank is aiding Greece by accepting Greek bonds as collateral that banks in Greece can use to borrow money. As long as Greece maintains its current credit ratings, the bonds qualify under central bank rules.
If the crisis worsens, it would fall to European governments to arrange a rescue of Greece or any other ailing country, like Portugal. While wanting to avoid anything that encourages further reckless borrowing and excessive government spending, they have indicated they will do whatever it takes to prevent a sovereign default of a euro member.

But the European Commission, the union’s executive body, lacks the expertise to manage the delicate mixture of carrots and sticks that would be involved in any bailout, economists say. Last year, when growth collapsed in countries in Eastern Europe like Latvia, Hungary and Romania, Brussels essentially outsourced the rescue to the International Monetary Fund.

European leaders do not want to turn to the I.M.F. for help rescuing a member of the euro zone, its core unit.

That probably leaves them with the alternative of advancing aid funds, issuing bonds on behalf of Greece that would be backed by other European countries or guaranteeing Greek bonds.

While the central bank itself cannot supply the money, Mr. Trichet is bound to play a discreet but influential behind-the-scenes role. He has the advantage of being able to speak his mind without worrying about being elected.....

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
For the third time in 18 months the global financial system risks spinning out of control unless political leaders take immediate and radical action..........
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/...as-confidence-ebbs.html

The chief executive of Pimco, the world's biggest bond fund, voiced concerns on Monday about massive U.S. debt levels, saying he preferred to invest in German government bonds than Treasurys in the current environment.

 

Mohamed El-Erian, head of Pacific Investment Management, called Greece a "massive wake-up call," saying its debt crisis threatened to infect other nations and push investors into safe-haven bond markets.

U.S. Treasurys are traditionally seen as the preferred safe haven, but El-Erian told Reuters Television that German bonds were likely to outperform them, given Washington's government debt to gross domestic product ratio of more than 60 percent.

"As we stand today, we prefer to take interest rate risk like government bonds in Germany which has much better conditions than in the United States," El-Erian said in an
interview.

 

He said the United States faced structural issues which its politicians and policymakers would have to address this year.

"When it comes to currency risk, we like to take it in places which have the strongest fundamentals. What we are focusing now on is to see where the strongest fundamentals," he said when asked about the fortunes of the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. dollar has rebounded in 2010, gaining more than 3 percent on a basket of currencies and over 4.5 percent against the euro as jitters over the fiscal problems facing Greece, Portugal and Spain intensify.

Spreads between benchmark German bonds and Greek debt have blown out to record levels of more than 400 basis points.

Worries of contagion has led investors to bail out of riskier assets like stocks and commodities in the past three weeks and seek the safety of government bonds and lower-yielding currencies such as the yen and the U.S. dollar.

Still, El-Erian sounded optimistic about investment prospects in emerging Asia, especially in stock markets.

In the short-term there are risks of a correction to the market, but in the long-term it is a very good bet, he said.

"Emerging equity markets tend to overshoot on the way up and on the way down," El-Erian said. "So long term, it is an exposure you would like to have but the entry point has to await some correction."

Pimco has $31 billion of dedicated emerging-market assets under management. Emerging stock markets globally rose 74 percent last year, outstripping developed markets, with much of the rise coming from Asia.

Bei diesen netten Ratiocharts möchte ich nicht hintan stehen und liefere mal wieder meinen Lieblings-Ratiochart.

kleben wie Pattex aneinander. Sag mir, wie der Euro läuft, und ich sag Dir, wie der DOW laufen wird.

 

U.S. Joins  Global Parade of Countries Plagued by Debt Bomb

Why does this matter? My friend Chris Helton, director of research at Paragon Investment Management in Seattle, points out  that sovereign debt can only be resolved by growth in the economy, as taxes on  higher levels of income pay off borrowings. At this point, he points out, the  United States will be lucky to grow GDP at 4% this year and next without new  federal stimulus. Without much more growth than that for a sustained amount of  time, it will be virtually impossible to service the debt load that we've  already racked up, much less have the wherewithal to add more.

We can  carry on at being blase about this so long as our lenders will humor us. But the  country has put itself in the untenable position of dependency on its creditors  like China and Japan. It's almost worse than having a dependence on foreign  sources of crude oil because there are alternatives to fossil fuels such as our  abundant natural gas, coal, sunshine and wind. There is no alternative to debt  repayment except the one that the Federal Reserve is desperately attempting at  the moment, much like Zimbabwe, and that is printing more money through a  variety of methods, including the mundane issuance of Treasury bonds and the  much more mysterious "quantitative easing."
 

 

For now we are locked in miserable embrace with China, as they cannot halt their  lending to us without harming their own economy, which is already fraying at the  edges, as you can see in major telecoms like China Unicom  Ltd. (NYSE ADR: CHU), down 30% since August. If they force the United  States into default, who will buy their poisoned toys and  jewelry? 

Seriously, at this point in their lifecycle as a growing  economy, Beijing leaders cannot afford to cut off our borrowing. But 10 or 15  years down the road, when their domestic economy is stronger, it may not be such  a tough decision. And that is why, in part, investors are soon going to demand  that U.S. lawmakers get their spending under control. When that happens, as it  must, the economy will inevitably slow down. This could happen a lot sooner than  most believe possible.

In fact, it may happen next year. The  Congressional Budget Office's latest forecast for the next two years, which has  not garnered much attention, concluded that economic growth will not be enough  to bring the national unemployment rate under 10% through at least September  2011. CBO chief Douglas W. Elmendorf said the economy will grow by a scant 1.6%  this year and 1.8% in 2011, and that the jobless rate will stabilize at 9.8% to  10.2%

Slow growth of this nature ensures deficits of $1 trillion through  2011.  In an appearance before Congress last week, Elmendorf called the debt  bomb a dangerous level that puts the country's future into peril.  "It is true  that as we push [public debt] to 60% of GDP at the end of this year and beyond  that over the next few years, we're moving into [debt] territory that most  developed countries stay out of,'' he said. 

This is serious stuff, and  it is why voters appear to feel in their gut that the government has veered off  in the wrong direction by tackling health-care reform and vilifying bankers when  it should be focused 100% every day on seeking ways to encourage companies to  expand and create new jobs. 

(....)

Weiter hier:  moneymorning.com/2010/02/08/debt-bomb-2/

volatiler als der Euro und hat eine Vorlauffunktion gegenüber EUR/USD. Im November zog Gold stark an und verhalf dem Euro mit Verspätung zu einem kleinen Heber; im Januar konnte man ähnliches beobachten. Ende Januar zog Gold wieder an, der Eur/Usd folgte später nach. Wenn Gold im USD stärker wird, erstarkt etwas später der Euro. Also: Sag mir, wie das Gold laufen wird, dann sag ich Dir, wie die Tendenz im Eur/USD  zusammen mit dem mit Pattex angeklebten DOW sein wird. Nur zu dumm, dass ich nicht weiß, was das Gold demnächst machen wird.

Aktuell scheinen die Spekulationsblasen in Industriemetallen seit Ende 2008 zu platzen. Zunächst der Chart des Silver-ETF:

Nun der Kupfer-Chart:

Nun der Chart des Gold-ETF: Dieser zeigt in Relation zu den beiden vorherigen eine deutlich "nachhaltigere" Qualität. Gold ist eben nicht "irgendeine" Ware.

www.thestreet.com/story/10676640/6/...ded-to-820-an-ounce.html

Es ist auffallend, dass in den letzten Wochen der Goldpreis und der SP-500 oft fast punktgleich notierten (heute z. B. stehen beide nahe 1065).

Im Link oben geht der Autor davon aus, dass Gold bis 820 Dollar fallen könnte. Fiele der SP-500 entsprechend mit, ergäbe sich auf für ihn ein Kursziel von 820 (grobe Näherung). Auslöser ist in beiden Fällen die EUR/USD-Schwäche.

When accurately  measured, including the shadow inventory from bank foreclosures, there is still nearly two year’s worth of unsold housing inventory in the United States, and commercial vacancy rates are poised to reach unprecedented highs, and this excess supply is bound to unleash another round of price deflation and debt defaults this year. The balance sheets of governments are rapidly in decline across a broad continuum, and it is particularly questionable as to whether Europe is in sound enough financial shape to weather another banking-related storm.

The global economy is set to cool off. Not only is China and India warding off inflation with credit tightening measures but most of the fiscal and monetary stimulus thrust in the U.S.A. and Canada is behind us as well.
And, the fiscal tourniquet is about to be applied in many parts of Europe, especially the PIIGS (referring to Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain — these countries account for a nontrivial 37% of Eurozone GDP). Greece’s GDP has already contracted by 3.0% YoY, as of Q4, and is expected to contract 1.1% in 2010 and 0.3% in 2011 as a 13% deficit-to-GDP ratio is sliced from 13% to 3% (assuming this fiscal goal can be achieved politically). Portugal has a 9.2% deficit-to-GDP ratio that is in need of repair and Spain has a deficit ratio that is even worse, at 11.4% of GDP.

The bottom line is that even if the fiscally-challenged countries of Europe do not end up defaulting, or leaving the Union, the reality is that they will have to take draconian measures to meet their financial obligations.Devaluation was the answer in the past in Greece but it cannot rely on that quick fix this time around without leaving EMU and if it did, then that could make it even harder to service its Euro-denominated debts — at least not without a restructuring. And, if Greece did attempt at a debt restructuring, rest assured that Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland would be next — we are talking about a combined $2 trillion of potential sovereign debt restructuring that would more than triple the $600 billion direct cost of the Lehman bankruptcy.....www.zerohedge.com/article/...soap-opera-ten-paragraphs-or-less

Markt-derletzte Nagel zum Sarg meint Tyler Durdan
www.zerohedge.com/article/...-lending-against-greek-collateral
The latest escalation in the Greek crisis comes courtesy of Greek daily Banking News which notes that the latest nail in the Greek coffin comes from formerly major Greek players, Deutsche Bank and Unicredit, which over the past 2-3 weeks have ceased accepting Greek collateral and have pulled out of the Greek repo market altogether.

absäuft, wäre das ein weiteres zeichen,dass der weg nach unten im sp500 weiter geht und ich  meine shorts dann aufstocke........ vielleicht hat einer von euch zuckerbärlis mal den chart dazu...merci....

hat nach unten noch reichlich Platz.

Wenn die Krise sich zuspitzt, wird der Aussi wieder stark absaufen, vor allem wenn wie in 2008 die Rohstoffe wegen USD-Stärke abkacken.